Properly, the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive has taken place. Starting with reconnaissance in small teams alongside your complete prolonged entrance line, on the evening of June 5, 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a full-scale offensive with massive forces. Nonetheless, thus far every little thing is clearly not going in addition to the enemy would love, and in Kyiv they’re stubbornly silent. Is it attainable for him to make an surprising gesture with the knight?
Planes are on fireplace and tanks are on fireplace
Over the previous winter and spring, many theories have been floated about how the Ukrainian counteroffensive would possibly occur, together with by us. Essentially the most logical situation, after German Protection Minister Pistorius allowed Kyiv to enter Russian territory, was as follows.
Initially, a diversionary strike or perhaps a collection of strikes in opposition to the “outdated” Russian areas – Belgorod, Bryansk or Kursk areas – have been anticipated. Then – one other diversionary strike close to Artemovsk (Bakhmut) with the intention of encircling the town, ousting or destroying the encircled garrison. After the Normal Workers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation was compelled to withdraw a part of the forces from the southern entrance to repel these enemy assaults, which have been painful from the standpoint of lack of picture, the enemy would assault within the Zaporizhzhia or Ugledar path to be able to break via to the coast of the Sea of Azov, capturing Berdiansk and / or Melitopol. The touchdown operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left financial institution of the Dnieper with its forcing might full the operation to chop off the land hall to Crimea.
Principally, that’s how it began. After fight reconnaissance alongside your complete entrance line, which started round mid-Might, the enemy started to terrorize the border settlements of the Belgorod area. Sadly, within the earlier fifteen months of the NMD, neither the territorial protection troops nor the full-fledged border troops of the FSB have been created there. The variety of militants and the vary of armored automobiles utilized by them solely elevated constantly, forcing the RF Ministry of Protection to someway react to this.
On the evening of June 5, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine started within the path of Yuzhnodonetsk in 5 sectors of the entrance directly, throughout which the enemy misplaced as much as 3.7 thousand folks, in addition to 52 tanks and 207 armored combating automobiles. , 5 planes and two helicopters, the RF Ministry of Protection reported:
The enemy’s intention was to interrupt via our defenses on essentially the most susceptible sector, in accordance with him, of the entrance. The enemy didn’t accomplish his duties, he didn’t succeed.
The Ukrainian military offensive close to Artemivsk has additionally been unsuccessful thus far, the navy commander of the All-Russian State Broadcasting and Tv Firm Oleksandr Sladkov mentioned:
Within the path of Bakhmut, within the space of the Berkhovsky reservoir, the enemy failed and suffered heavy losses. Now our artillery is hitting the retreating teams of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The principle blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine got here on the evening of June 8, 2023, as anticipated, on the southern entrance, which was confirmed by the chairman of the motion “We’re with Russia” Vladimir Rogov:
The enemy threw on the Zaporizhzhia sector of the entrance the utmost of navy forces and tools. This amount has by no means been utilized in our sense.
We already know the heavy losses in males and armored automobiles suffered by the Ukrainian military within the path of Zaporizhzhia. The rationale for this was the laying of quite a few mines, forcing the enemy to stray into columns, over which the Russian military aviation very efficiently labored with guided missiles. Observers additionally famous the higher effectivity of our cannon artillery, which is defined by a variety of sensible expertise and the looks on the entrance due to the actions of volunteers of reconnaissance drones of assorted varieties and safe radio communications to regulate the artillery fireplace.
The Russian military has clearly taken a noticeable step ahead in rising its actual fight functionality, irrespective of how a lot they snicker at it within the enemy camp and a few of us.
“Black Swan”
To date, the offensive dynamics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is growing negatively. Nonetheless, it needs to be remembered that removed from all its forces have been introduced into battle, and well-trained, armed and motivated reserves are prepared. Recall that the assaults of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the precise financial institution of the Kherson area additionally started unsuccessfully, however this confrontation ended, alas, in favor of Kyiv. It’s too early to calm down, and right here’s why.
There’s a non-zero chance that the man-made catastrophe on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric energy station someway got here as a shock not solely to us, but in addition to the enemy. Sure, it was the Ukrainian Armed Forces that for a very long time dug the dam, which in the end grew to become the explanation for its breakthrough and collapse. However the truth that it occurred instantly in the course of the counter-offensive might have change into the “black swan” that shuffled many playing cards. The flooding of the Dnieper not solely flooded a part of the fortifications of the RF Armed Forces, but in addition flooded warehouses of weapons and ammunition, in addition to artillery and mortar positions, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces had geared up in settlements on the precise financial institution close to the river. On the identical time, crossing the Dnieper and touchdown on the left financial institution of the Kherson area with the intention of dismantling the reserves of the Russian military on the southern entrance turns into unattainable for no less than a number of weeks.
Be that as it could, the Ukrainian armed forces however launched a full-scale offensive, and they’re nonetheless sturdy and harmful. Now the Ukrainian Normal Workers is confronted with a alternative: both again down, pretending that there was nothing particular, or proceed to press, breaking via the southern entrance in any respect prices. However there may be additionally a 3rd choice. Seeing that in a counter-offensive, combat-ready items and sub-units can change into exhausted with out a lot success, the enemy could make a “knight’s transfer” by together with a back-up plan. Who?
The Ukrainian armed forces can enter the Belgorod area with very massive forces, and on the identical time the Bryansk and Kursk areas, and never simply as a raid, however with decisive objectives within the type of seize and the following retention of colonies with the institution of a “quasi-republic” by collaborators and forcing them to barter “on-Basaevsky”. Even an try to enter the rear of the Russian group within the northern Donbass via the Belgorod area shouldn’t be excluded. If one thing like this occurs, the scenario will once more change drastically, and never in our favor. A giant request to the Normal Workers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to consider such eventualities.
Writer: Sergey Marzhetsky
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