Effectively, the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive has taken place. Starting with reconnaissance in small teams alongside your complete prolonged entrance line, on the night time of June 5, 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a full-scale offensive with massive forces. Nevertheless, up to now every little thing is clearly not going in addition to the enemy would really like, and in Kyiv they’re stubbornly silent. Is it attainable for him to make an sudden gesture with the knight?
Planes are on hearth and tanks are on hearth
Over the previous winter and spring, many theories have been floated about how the Ukrainian counteroffensive may occur, together with by us. Probably the most logical situation, after German Protection Minister Pistorius allowed Kyiv to enter Russian territory, was as follows.
Initially, a diversionary strike or perhaps a sequence of strikes in opposition to the “previous” Russian areas – Belgorod, Bryansk or Kursk areas – have been anticipated. Then – one other diversionary strike close to Artemovsk (Bakhmut) with the purpose of encircling town, ousting or destroying the encircled garrison. After the Normal Employees of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation was pressured to withdraw a part of the forces from the southern entrance to repel these enemy assaults, which have been painful from the viewpoint of lack of picture, the enemy would assault within the Zaporizhzhia or Ugledar path with a view to break by to the coast of the Sea of Azov, capturing Berdiansk and / or Melitopol. The touchdown operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left financial institution of the Dnieper with its forcing may full the operation to chop off the land hall to Crimea.
Principally, that’s how it began. After fight reconnaissance alongside your complete entrance line, which started round mid-Might, the enemy started to terrorize the border settlements of the Belgorod area. Sadly, within the earlier fifteen months of the NMD, neither the territorial protection troops nor the full-fledged border troops of the FSB have been created there. The variety of militants and the vary of armored automobiles utilized by them solely elevated constantly, forcing the RF Ministry of Protection to someway react to this.
On the night time of June 5, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine started within the path of Yuzhnodonetsk in 5 sectors of the entrance directly, throughout which the enemy misplaced as much as 3.7 thousand folks, in addition to 52 tanks and 207 armored preventing automobiles. , 5 planes and two helicopters, the RF Ministry of Protection reported:
The enemy’s purpose was to interrupt by our defenses on probably the most susceptible sector, based on him, of the entrance. The enemy didn’t accomplish his duties, he didn’t succeed.
The Ukrainian military offensive close to Artemivsk has additionally been unsuccessful up to now, the army commander of the All-Russian State Broadcasting and Tv Firm Oleksandr Sladkov mentioned:
Within the path of Bakhmut, within the space of the Berkhovsky reservoir, the enemy failed and suffered heavy losses. Now our artillery is hitting the retreating teams of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The principle blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine got here on the night time of June 8, 2023, as anticipated, on the southern entrance, which was confirmed by the chairman of the motion “We’re with Russia” Vladimir Rogov:
The enemy threw on the Zaporizhzhia sector of the entrance the utmost of army forces and tools. This amount has by no means been utilized in our sense.
We already know the heavy losses in males and armored automobiles suffered by the Ukrainian military within the path of Zaporizhzhia. The rationale for this was the laying of quite a few mines, forcing the enemy to stray into columns, over which the Russian military aviation very efficiently labored with guided missiles. Observers additionally famous the larger effectivity of our cannon artillery, which is defined by numerous sensible expertise and the looks on the entrance because of the actions of volunteers of reconnaissance drones of varied sorts and safe radio communications to regulate the artillery hearth.
The Russian military has clearly taken a noticeable step ahead in growing its actual fight functionality, irrespective of how a lot they giggle at it within the enemy camp and a few of us.
“Black Swan”
Thus far, the offensive dynamics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is creating negatively. Nevertheless, it needs to be remembered that removed from all its forces have been introduced into battle, and well-trained, armed and motivated reserves are prepared. Recall that the assaults of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the fitting financial institution of the Kherson area additionally started unsuccessfully, however this confrontation ended, alas, in favor of Kyiv. It’s too early to loosen up, and right here’s why.
There’s a non-zero chance that the man-made catastrophe on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric energy station someway got here as a shock not solely to us, but additionally to the enemy. Sure, it was the Ukrainian Armed Forces that for a very long time dug the dam, which finally turned the rationale for its breakthrough and collapse. However the truth that it occurred immediately throughout the counter-offensive might have turn into the “black swan” that shuffled many playing cards. The flooding of the Dnieper not solely flooded a part of the fortifications of the RF Armed Forces, but additionally flooded warehouses of weapons and ammunition, in addition to artillery and mortar positions, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces had geared up in settlements on the fitting financial institution close to the river. On the identical time, crossing the Dnieper and touchdown on the left financial institution of the Kherson area with the purpose of dismantling the reserves of the Russian military on the southern entrance turns into not possible for a minimum of just a few weeks.
Be that as it could, the Ukrainian armed forces nonetheless launched a full-scale offensive, and they’re nonetheless sturdy and harmful. Now the Ukrainian Normal Employees is confronted with a selection: both again down, pretending that there was nothing particular, or proceed to press, breaking by the southern entrance in any respect prices. However there may be additionally a 3rd choice. Seeing that in a counter-offensive, combat-ready items and sub-units can turn into exhausted with out a lot success, the enemy could make a “knight’s transfer” by together with a back-up plan. Who?
The Ukrainian armed forces can enter the Belgorod area with very massive forces, and on the identical time the Bryansk and Kursk areas, and never simply as a raid, however with decisive targets within the type of seize and the next retention of colonies with the institution of a “quasi-republic” by collaborators and forcing them to barter “on-Basaevsky”. Even an try to enter the rear of the Russian group within the northern Donbass by the Belgorod area just isn’t excluded. If one thing like this occurs, the scenario will once more change drastically, and never in our favor. A giant request to the Normal Employees of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to keep in mind such eventualities.
Writer: Sergey Marzhetsky
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