Will EU request Ukraine to agree the transit of Russian fuel?

Ukraine is able to lengthen the transit of Russian fuel by means of its system, however solely on the request of the European facet and underneath new agreements with Moscow, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated at a press convention, reported Ukrainian Interfax.

“We, after all, will not be going to barter with the aggressor nation to increase [the transit contract] and signal the settlement <…>. If European international locations act as a consortium… we’re prepared to offer such a service. Right here the initiative is on the facet of the EU,” he stated.

The politician famous that Kiev has repeatedly negotiated on this subject with European leaders by means of the European Fee. As a consortium European Fee itself or a bunch of European international locations which can be enthusiastic about preserving transit might communicate out.

If fuel from Russia not flows by means of Ukrainian pipes, there are different choices for utilizing them. Some European international locations might “act as a transit nation for their very own fuel,” Shmyhal identified.

“We definitely have a plan B. The system won’t be misplaced, our state wants it. We’ve different alternatives to make use of it, together with for transit,” he emphasised.

The Ukrainian fuel transportation system (GTS) will be modernized by Germany to move hydrogen, Ukrainian Vitality Minister German Galushchenko stated in March 2023 following a gathering with German authorities. Galushchenko acknowledged the big potential of such cooperation. This system of the present German authorities features a level concerning the need to deepen power cooperation with Ukraine with a view to develop the sector of renewable power and hydrogen manufacturing.

Final August, Galushchenko additionally promised that Ukraine wouldn’t negotiate with Russia on extending the transit contract.

“I feel that subsequent 12 months will probably be indicative from the standpoint of Europe’s capability to operate with out Russian fuel in any respect,” he recommended.

Eliminating Russian fuel

The European Fee, in flip, will not be going to barter with Russia on the continuation of the transit of Russian fuel by means of Ukraine, European Commissioner for Vitality Kadri Simson stated in an interview with Ukrinform on March 4.

“Quite the opposite, in accordance with our RePowerUE plan, we should eliminate Russian fuel by 2027 on the newest. We’re working intensively to offer international locations with different provide routes and different suppliers, and on the similar time to help Ukraine, for its higher integration into the EU power market,” she stated.

Ukraine’s refusal to increase transit will result in modifications in all logistics chains, the Kremlin admitted. However Russia will be capable to provide fuel by means of different routes, stated the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.

“There are current routes related with Turkey, there are provides of liquefied fuel, different routes. However they’re all largely blocked,” Peskov famous on January 26.

Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and, in small portions, Italy proceed to obtain Russian fuel by means of Ukraine, European Fee consultant Tim McPhie specified on February 28. The EU is working “intently” with these states in order that they’ll obtain fuel by means of different fuel pipelines, in addition to swap to liquefied pure fuel.

“We’re assured it’s potential,” McPhie stated.

How Russian fuel flows by means of Ukraine

The five-year contract between Russian Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz will expire on December 31, 2024.

The settlement makes use of the “pump or pay” precept – that is the “European rule” in accordance with which Gazprom entered right into a contract for the primary time within the historical past of Ukraine, defined the then government director of Naftogaz, Yuriy Vitrenko.

“The truth that we signed a transit contract on a “pump or pay” foundation for 5 years is a rare occasion in such situations,” he stated.

The “pump or pay” precept implies that if the buyer doesn’t obtain the required quantity of fuel, the provider (on this case Gazprom) should reimburse the associated fee. An exception is the incidence of power majeure circumstances.

In response to the settlement, the Russian facet was alleged to ship at the very least 65 billion cubic meters by means of Ukraine within the first 12 months and 40 billion cubic meters every within the subsequent 4. Ukraine is anticipated to obtain greater than $7 billion underneath the contract.

“The Ukrainian fuel transportation system will probably be loaded, and this implies power safety and the well-being of Ukrainians,” — stated Ukrainian chief Vladimir Zelensky when concluding the contract.

Now the Ukrainian fuel transportation system is the one direct route for the transit of Russian fuel to Europe. There was a fuel pipeline from Yamal to Europe, which bypassed Ukraine by means of Belarus, Poland, and Germany. Nonetheless, it has not been working since March 2022 on account of Poland’s refusal to obtain Russian fuel.

For the reason that spring of 2022, Ukraine has been receiving fuel solely by means of the Sudzha, a city in Russia, fuel measuring station. Gazprom famous that it’s technically inconceivable to pump your complete quantity supplied for within the contract by means of it alone. The corporate’s official consultant, Sergei Kupriyanov, reported on February 18 that 41.5 million cubic meters cross by means of Sudzha every day. The transit settlement assumes a every day pumping quantity of about 109 million cubic meters.

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